Fuel Shock Keeps Business Travel Prices Elevated Through 2026 With Relief Ahead in 2027, According to New GBTA Forecast

Why this matters

The persistence of elevated business travel costs through 2026, as forecast by GBTA and ALTOUR, underscores a sustained inflationary environment within the hospitality sector that will shape institutional capital allocation and underwriting for years to come. For CRE investors and lenders focused on hotels, the projected increases in airfares and average daily rates (ADRs) suggest that demand fundamentals remain robust despite broader economic headwinds. This resilience may support stable or even improved revenue streams for well-positioned assets, justifying continued investor interest in business-oriented hospitality properties. However, the forecast also signals that cost pressures—driven in part by fuel-related inflation—are unlikely to abate in the near term, potentially compressing operating margins and complicating underwriting assumptions. Capital providers may need to factor in higher expense baselines and more cautious growth projections, particularly for assets reliant on corporate travel. The anticipated moderation in 2027 points to a structural shift rather than a cyclical spike, implying that capital markets should prepare for a prolonged period of elevated pricing before normalization. Overall, this outlook reinforces the importance of granular market analysis and conservative underwriting in hospitality CRE, as well as the potential for selective opportunities where pricing power can offset cost inflation.

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On the RET wire

• Disclosed hospitality deal value tracked in July 2026: $421M across 5 reported transactions. All Hospitality coverage →

Computed from Real Estate Trail’s own tracked coverage

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