VTS Lifts 2026 San Francisco Office Leasing Forecast 13% to 14.5MM SQFT as AI Demand Converts to Signed Leases
Why this matters
Office continues to trade in two distinct markets: trophy assets in walkable submarkets that are leasing at or near record rents, and commodity Class B and C buildings where the basis is still resetting. Underwriting on the latter has moved toward replacement-cost-minus, with credit underwriting now leaning on tenant covenant and remaining lease term rather than mark-to-market expectations. San Francisco continues to clear office at the deepest discounts to 2019 basis seen in the cycle, while multifamily fundamentals have stabilized and life sciences in the Peninsula remains active. For LP-positioned capital, the read-through is that the bifurcation is now a structural feature of the sector, not a cycle to wait out.
Editorial analysis · Real Estate Trail Editorial
On the RET wire
- The 100th San Francisco story tracked on the wire in September 2026. All San Francisco coverage →
- Disclosed office deal value tracked in September 2026: $9.1B across 43 reported transactions. All Office coverage →
Computed from Real Estate Trail’s own tracked coverage
Sustained artificial intelligence demand is converting into signed office leases in San Francisco faster than VTS expected, pushing the firm to raise its 2026 leasing forecast for the market by 13 percent even as it w…
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