San Jose Office Pipeline Runs Dry After Google’s Caribbean Campus Delivers
Why this matters
Office continues to trade in two distinct markets: trophy assets in walkable submarkets that are leasing at or near record rents, and commodity Class B and C buildings where the basis is still resetting. Underwriting on the latter has moved toward replacement-cost-minus, with credit underwriting now leaning on tenant covenant and remaining lease term rather than mark-to-market expectations. San Francisco continues to clear office at the deepest discounts to 2019 basis seen in the cycle, while multifamily fundamentals have stabilized and life sciences in the Peninsula remains active. For LP-positioned capital, the read-through is that the bifurcation is now a structural feature of the sector, not a cycle to wait out.
Editorial analysis · Real Estate Trail Editorial
On the RET wire
- The 65th San Francisco story tracked on the wire in October 2026. All San Francisco coverage →
- Disclosed office deal value tracked in October 2026: $2.5B across 11 reported transactions. All Office coverage →
Computed from Real Estate Trail’s own tracked coverage
Marcus & Millichap expects 1.3 million square feet of office completions in the San Jose metro this year, all of it tied to Google's owner-occupied Caribbean campus in Sunnyvale, with no meaningful projects under cons…
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