Morgan Stanley raises 2026 commercial real estate volume forecast
Why this matters
Commercial real estate continues to digest a multi-year reset in cost of capital. Transaction velocity is below the 2019-2021 trend but improving, cap rates have stabilized across most stabilized property types, and the bid-ask gap has narrowed materially in the past two quarters. Sponsors with permanent capital and operating platforms have an advantage in the current execution environment. The next twelve months will continue to reward underwriting discipline and operational sophistication over balance-sheet aggression.
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