MBA forecast: Mortgage volume to dip below $2T in 2027 as 7% rates linger

Why this matters

Capital markets activity continues to be defined by the rotation from bank balance sheets to non-bank lenders. Private credit funds have raised record dry powder; banks have tightened CRE underwriting standards for the sixth consecutive quarter. The result is a market where well-sponsored deals clear, and marginal credit pays a meaningful spread to do so. For LPs, the allocation conversation has shifted decisively toward real estate debt, with equity allocations being deployed more selectively into operator-led platforms.

Editorial analysis · Real Estate Trail Editorial

On the RET wire

• Disclosed capital deal value tracked in October 2026: $5.5B across 21 reported transactions.

Computed from Real Estate Trail’s own tracked coverage

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