Market performance in H2 2026 will be driven by AI, despite geopolitical uncertainty and persistent inflation: Natixis Investment Managers Strategists Survey 2026

Why this matters

The Natixis Investment Managers Strategists Survey underscores a pivotal shift in institutional sentiment for US commercial real estate as it approaches the second half of 2026. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures, a striking majority of strategists pinpoint artificial intelligence as the dominant driver of market performance. This consensus signals a growing recognition that AI-induced productivity gains could bolster corporate earnings, thereby supporting demand for office and industrial space linked to technology-intensive sectors. For allocators and capital markets professionals, this emphasis on AI suggests a recalibration of risk and opportunity frameworks. Capital flows may increasingly favor assets and markets positioned to benefit from AI adoption—such as data centers, logistics hubs, and innovation districts—while traditional sectors vulnerable to inflation or geopolitical disruption could face headwinds. Lending conditions might tighten selectively, with lenders scrutinizing tenant credit profiles through the lens of AI-driven business resilience. In sum, the survey reflects a nuanced institutional view that technological innovation, rather than macroeconomic uncertainty alone, will shape CRE fundamentals and capital allocation strategies in the near term. This insight should inform portfolio positioning and underwriting assumptions as market participants navigate a complex and evolving landscape.

Editorial analysis · AI-assisted

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