Deloitte: Back-to-School Spending Holds Steady During Economic Uncertainty

Why this matters

The steadiness of back-to-school spending amid broad economic uncertainty signals a nuanced consumer backdrop for US commercial real estate investors, particularly in retail and multifamily sectors. Deloitte’s survey suggests that while households are bracing for a deteriorating economy, discretionary spending tied to essential life-cycle events remains resilient. For institutional allocators, this dynamic underscores a bifurcated risk environment: consumer demand may hold firm in categories linked to education and family needs, even as broader inflationary pressures and recession fears temper overall spending growth. From a capital-markets perspective, this steadiness could support retail landlords with exposure to value-oriented and necessity-driven tenants, potentially insulating them from the more severe rent corrections seen in discretionary retail segments. Multifamily operators in family-dense submarkets might also benefit from sustained household spending on essentials, which can underpin occupancy and tenant retention. Lenders and equity providers should interpret these signals as indicative of selective resilience rather than broad-based strength, reinforcing the need for granular underwriting that differentiates between consumer segments and property types. In sum, Deloitte’s findings highlight the uneven contours of demand that will shape capital allocation and risk assessment in US CRE through the remainder of the year.

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